I. Tracking
1. Two heavy lift launches with mixed results; one was not a success, the other was not a failure.
Blue Origin finally reached orbit after almost 25 years, but failed to land its booster, currently placing it in the same category of heavy lift vehicles that have existed since the 1960s. It's a feat, no doubt, especially to suceed on the first shot which still is viewed as a very risky flight. But given that NG took almost as long as SLS to develop and fly, flew second to SLS, and still didn't recover the booster, it is a disapointment coming from a company that prefers to plan everything to perfection and make it right the first time around. This was not a success.
That Blue Origin method is in stark contrast to SpaceX which has a 10 year lead time over Blue Origin and is growing the gap through its Starship system. The SpaceX Starship launch ended with a streak of bright fireballs crossing the sky showing that the Starship itself exploded, but the company also managed to recover its heavy-lift booster using precision hovering and mechanical arms to capture it. That's the second time it's done that, yet to many observers, it's not the highlight of this flight; the Starship explosion remains the main piece of concern, Still, SpaceX has managed launch this massive stack seven times in 2 years, and even though they'll probably have another explosion, it'll be in the very near future. This launch only proved that they continue to move fast, which means, this was not a failure. It's just another rapid iteration toward sustained success.
(A simple coincidence of timing, but one that allows us to say that the launches were night and day.)
2. Commercial Space is Militarized Space
Planet and Voyager Space both took steps to cement their pivot into the defense and national security realm. This comes on the heels of True Anomaly also adding former DoD officials to their leadership structure. The common theme form all these companies, startups and large organizations alike, is that there is still insufficient commercial demand for most space operations to be financially viable without the use of defense money. While there is no denying the evolution of the space domain is one of more competition, it does ask the question: if there was no great-power competition in space, would there be a need for all of these commercial actors?
The realistic aspect so far is that outside of communications services, other space-based capabilities remain extremely expensive to provide for most customers except government, especially compared to most terrestrial solutions. Even if there is commercial demand for some services, they are not currently in high enough numbers to warrant having multiple commercial providers (in EO alone, we have Maxar, Planet, Iceye, Spire, Airbus, Albedo... just to name a few).
These pivots to defense are meant to address threats from other countries, but at which point does having so many commercial companies pivot to defense represent a solution in search of a problem?
II. Immediate Awareness
1 Rocket Factor Augsburg has been granted a launch license to conduct the first vertical launch from Scotland, giving hope that the SaxaVord spaceport will attract launch customers.
2 ArianeGroup is bidding to be a launch provider for IRIS2, however if IRIS2 keeps its deadlines (which is unlikely), that means that the European rocket provider will struggle to fulfill the required launch cadence to meet customer demands.
3 The ESA has approved its initial 2025 budget, coming at 7.7B euros, which would be larger than 2024, enabling the agency to continue its evolution to maintain a competitive edge with their American counterparts.
4 Japan-based Orbital Lasers and Indian startup InsperCity Space Laboratories have reached an agreement to collaborate on development of space technologies, supporting international space developments in an increasingly polarized industry.
5 China successfully launched again their Jielong-3 rocket from a sea-platform, demonstrating the Middle Kingdom's desire and ability to match the variety of launch capabilities that not only provide flexibility, but diversity.
6 India joined the small ranks of countries and entities capable of conducting Rendez-vous and Proximity Operations (RPO) when two of its satellites docked with each other, opening the doors for a variety of use-cases.
7 The US National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA) has selected 13 companies for a $200 million contract to provide space-based data and analytics for their analysis, shifting the responsibility of data collection furhter from the government to commerical entities.
III. Quote of the Week
“While market prices have gone down [for satellite capacity] and continue to erode — although it seems to be bottoming out a little bit — the cost of buying a new satellite has barely changed."
Mark Rigolle - CEO, Agility Beyond Space, referring to the shifting market demands of large government contracts.