I. Tracking
1. SpaceX Launched 27 Starlink at once, setting new record on Falcon 9
The 27 satellites is the interesting piece of information in this latest deployment for Starlink, which continues to develop an ever growing lead on its competitors (both proven and theoretical). The thousands of satellites needed to create a Starlink-like constellation aren't all placed in the same orbit, which is why they can't all be launched at once but instead in batches to the various inclinations (changing inclinations requires a lot of energy, which generally translates to more mass for propellant, which means an expensive launch). That's why the buzz from new, heavy-lift rockets will not necessarily mean that thousand-plus satellite constellations can be launched in one shot. SpaceX's ability to maximize mass efficiency on their cheaper Falcon 9 (without requiring a profit for the launch) gives them a large efficiency edge. Plus, considering the bandwidth requirements to connect a profitable number of customers, some investors are starting to wonder if there will be room for competitors. The EU is moving forward with Iris2 but this is a government backed effort, as is the Chinese project. But while OneWeb appears to be commercially viable right now, it already went bankrupt once. Kuiper still has yet to provide a service but with Amazon's financial capabilities, it could still prove itself. SpaceX's success should not be viewed as an indication of possible success for others. LEO constellations, while good on paper, continue to have a very complex path to profitability.
2. Electric propulsion gains capabilities thanks to supercomputer, but is the same supercomputer rendering the propulsion obsolete?
Researchers at the University of Virginia School of Engineering and Applied Science, along with the University of Southern California have started to better understand why electric propulsion systems degrade over time, providing insights that could support the use of the efficient propulsion system for future space exploration. Using a supercomputer to simulate the behavior of ions in the engine's exhaust, the scientists were able to also model the characteristics of the plume and other material interactions. However, the computing power to deliver these results, alongside the advances of AI and other machine-learning capabilities, has brought back to the forefront the question of why go to space in the first place? In the past, it was often said that going to space was required to conduct experiments that could not be performed on Earth. But with supercomputers becoming more powerful every year, simulations may soon be sufficient to 'recreate' the microgravity environment and understand how that would affect various research questions. If a medical expert could simply program the systems to test various protein developments in micro-gravity, it would negate much of the need to expensively launch actual experiements. For now, missions for services in Earth orbit (communications, weather, observation etc.) alongside actual planetary exploration, are not affected. But experimental missions, particularly those on the ISS or other future stations, may soon see themselves as redundant or simply fact checking what Earth-side research has already discovered.
II. Immediate Awareness
1 French government spy satellite arrives at France's spaceport in Guyane to be mated to its Ariane 6 rocket, the second launch for Ariane's newest model that continues to depend on government contracts to justify the enormous costs in treasure and delays.
2 A UK-startup-manufactured engine successfully fired on its US lunar-lander, allowing Nammo to consider future contracts with other spacecraft providers in the much larger and commercialized US space operations market.
3 Norway and the US signed an agreement for technology safeguard, allowing US space systems to be launched from Norway, expanding US cooperation with Europe and providing deeper integration between the two blocks in space operations.
4 The Japanese startup iSpace sees its second lunar lander HAKUTO-R successfully reach space, continuing to push for commercial viability to reach for the Moon.
5 Taiwan's payload on HAKUTO-R was successfully activated and confirmed to be functioning, allowing the island-nation to continue to develop more space-rated systems that can answer to various needs, from LEO ops to potential lunar applications.
6 NASA's James Webb Space Telescope may see lower operational returns due to potential budget cuts, despite spacecraft's extensive testing, delays, and unique capabilities that are able to run for 10+ years still.
7 A large, green-energy project is anticipated to have negative consequences for the Very Large Telescope array in Chile, with primary concerns coming from the potential light and noise pollution arising from the 20,000 workers expected to live at the green-energy project site.
8 Fergani Space, a Turkish space firm, successfully made contact with its FGN-100-d1 satellite, the first of a constellation, which is intended to position itself in the crowded field of space communications and geo-positoning.
III. Quote of the Week
“These divestitures by entrenched government contractors marks a pivotal moment in the space economy."
Space Capital - Q4 2024 Investment Report, predicting that 2025 will be a transformative year for the key players of the space industry.