I. Tracking
1. China is allowing commercial companies to participate in its lunar exploration missions for the first time, aiming to boost innovation and collaboration in its space program.
China's lean into commercial opportunities may be good news for Chinese companies, and is a path already followed by the US, and to a lesser extent, European partners in the ESA. While details remain limited, the Chinese government and its apparatus will most likely remain the primary customer for lunar options. Unfortunately, this also risks creating even more opportunities for international competition on the moon; the US-led Artemis Accords versus the Chinese-led International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). As mentioned in previous articles, it is unclear where the actual commercial opportunities will be created beyond government contracts, and as divisions between the US and China continue to develop, so too will opportunities for cooperation between the two blocks. Russo-American cooperation may provide a historic path, but given current tensions, it remains still a longshot, which means US or Chinese corporations are likely to remain funded by their respective governments, with only domestic competition to contend with.
Initial story from: Space News
2. More commercial launch providers emerging from China in 2025
In a similar vein, new Chinese launch vehicles create even more pressure for other launch developers. While the US is a single country that provides some demand for potential launch developers, other individual countries now will have options between either low-cost US services, or new ones from China. Demand may not meet expectations, and there is a strong possibility that we end up in another duopoly situation as we have in many other industries (Coca Cola vs. Pepsi, Airbus vs Boeing, ) While there are often smaller players in the industries of question (think Embraer, Mitsubishi, or even Dassault, in the aero world), giant rockets lobbing spacecraft still depend on the commercial demands of said spacecraft. RocketLab has found a niche in the small rockets division, it still diversified away from launch, and Virgin Orbit and many others have demonstrated that costs alone aren't the only factors for success. China and the US may have a wall between them for launch capabilities, so there is little risk that US companies start to launch from each other's countries. But If India and the Europeans also continue to develop their own commercial launch programs, along with other nations, there will be a lot of launch capabilities driven not by market forces, but simple national prestige.
Initial story from: NASA Spaceflight (Not a NASA website)
II. Immediate Awareness
1 Thales has signed a contract with the European Space Agency (ESA) to develop the Argonaut lunar lander, bringing about a third large-scale delivery system for the Artemis program alongside questions of how many companies are needed for limited government operations on the Moon.
2 Arianespace has secured three launch contracts for its Ariane 6 rocket within two days, allowing the European space launch provider to brush off some of its past criticisms and begin a path toward commercial viability.
3 The UK government has invested £20 million in Orbex to support the development of its small satellite launch vehicle, adding increased competition in an already crowded field of launch vehicles competing for very small 'sovereign' contracts.
4 Japan will join a U.S.-led space telescope project aimed at searching for signs of life beyond Earth, continuing international collaboration in space exploration despite US executive policies.
5 China is planning to build a space-based solar power station to harness energy directly from the sun, opening a new avenue for its space efforts to provide Earth-side services in addition to deep-space exploration (Story delayed to find credible source).
6 Voyager Technologies, now officially focusing on providing advanced defense solutions, has filed for an IPO, aiming to raise further capital to further expand its reach in the highly competitive yet lucrative defense sector, signaling future challenges. (Future story coming)
7 iPhone's compatibility with Starlink causes a drop in competing stocks, a remainder that the market is not currently sized for such massive space investments and the first mover advantage remains very real.
8 USSF reminds space providers that rockets are not the bottleneck to reach space, but satellite prep facilities, giving an opening (though not as sexy as a rocket) for an actual commercial solution that doesn’t currently have a lot of competition.
III. Quote of the Week
““We’re going to be in a world by 2050 where decisions will not be made a human speed... They’re going to be made at machine speed."
Frank Kendall, Secretary of the Air Force, on how the Air Force and Space Force should evolve to be a fit fighting force in 2050.