I. Tracking
1. Prime defense contractors compete for military satellite contracts, demonstrating the difficulties of pivoting to a 100% commercial solution
Reflecting on what has already been observed from startups in the industry, the US government still isn't 100% ready to just delegate capabilities and their development to the commercial sector, even less unproven startups. The traditional providers that have delivered, for better or worse, US government capabilities over the past few decades are developing competing bids for a major US contract. Both Boeing and Lockheed Martin are partnering with other major defense contractors such as Raytheon, to develop specific capabilities that would integrated in order to meet the US government's desire to modernize its ultra-high band frequency narrowband satellite network. While there has been news about the Starlink and Starshield developments, it's important to note that Boeing was also recently contracted to build a new WGS satellite in late 2023, after the Department of the Air Force wrote to Congress to explain that no commercial providers would be capable of fielding a suitable alternative. SpaceX's feat is not that it managed to change government methods, rather that it ascended to the privileged ranks of 'prime' (using lucrative government contracts to get there).
In the mind of the US government are several concerns that drive this desire to continue to rely on the existing prime-government process. First is a startup's dependency on government dollars; a US government need may not be a commercial need, and the startup may end up being unviable without government support, especially over the course of decades. Second is priorities; if the government is a customer among others for a commercially viable company, what is the priority for the government, in the event there are malfunctions or issues? Third, and related to the second point, is the existing continuity that exists between the primes and the government. Deep within the DoD, down to the unit level, are offices of contractors (sometimes subcontractors to the primes), that maintain the operational capabilities of the military as military members PCS or separate; the way these offices are run, treated and managed are ingrained in the military, government and private sector cultures. Consequently, while innovations and potential transformations of capabilities may develop in the private sector, the way the government runs things is meant to be dependable, reliable, and effective over decades. Efficiency, especially for specific military needs, isn't always the name of the game.
Initial story from: Space News
2. Thales to build UAE contribution to Lunar Gateway, demosntrating difficulties of building for space in-house
As evidenced by how both Thales and the Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre of the United Arab Emirates have described the development of the UAE's contribution to the Lunar Gateway station, developing space infrastructure remains the realm of very select organizations. While the UAE characterized the signed deal with Thales as a strategic partnership, Thales's press release described it as a contract to design and develop the airlock. While the UAE certainly has made progress in its space ambitions, it is a reminder, for nations and startups alike, that the complexities to solve large space-infrastructure problems reliably remains accessible to a select few organizations. On paper, with enough money, many states can access space, however, to actually build and integrate space systems, the main challenge relies in manpower, not necessarily funds. Educated engineers, with experience, take decades to train, and to do so over the long term requires a sustained effort. The US, Europeans including Russia, and Japanese, have done this well since the dawn of the space age, primarily through their mix of civil and military space developments. China has also, in recent decades demonstrated a political and financial will to invest in space infrastructure, allowing it to make great leaps in space capabilities. However, there are few shortcuts for that development time, and the UAE can't exactly compete with the industrial capabilities of the EU or US, short of poaching talent from those regions (Blue Origin did this, yet its results remain very mixed). As a result, while some countries may be financially capable to pay for space infrastructure, designing, building and integrating such capabilities remains somewhat out of reach. Engineers starting in university today are deciding what to focus on will consider how realistic space investments will be for their home country. For Americans, Europeans, Japanese, Russians or Chinese, it's a plausible path. For others, there will be doubts; either financial or political. For Emiratis, it's mostly the latter, as demonstrated by the fact they contracted with a European builder for the execution of their contribution.
Initial story from: European Spaceflight
II. Immediate Awareness
1 German space startup ATMOS received approval from the FAA to deploy their Phoenix space capsule, a potential gamechanger in reentry capabilities which could unlock commercial exploitation of the space environment for the future.
2 French space agency CNES has issued a call for the development of a reusable upper-stage rocket, however this is not the first time the French agency has selected similar projects, only for them to never get past the proposal stage, creating doubts about the current process.
3 Roscomos, Russia's space agency, has seen its leader dismissed by the Kremlin and replaced with a deputy transport minister, with Western observers doubtful that the Russian space capabilities will recover regardless of who is leader due to ongoing sanctions and the brain drain caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
4 Japan's H3 rocket completed its fourth launch in less than a year, a feat not seen with any rocket anywhere in the world since 2000 (SpaceX's Falcon 9 took a little more than 2 years), demonstrating technological and management prowess missing in other non-reusable rocket players.
5 Statement expressing US-Japan collaboration on Artemis is released by Trump White House, despite doubts about the futureof the Artemis program from the new US president and people surrounding him.
6 Rocket Lab's Electron rocket successfully launches set of satellites for French startup, demonstrating that bigger isn't always better as it extends of the small-launch market in-lieu of massive launch vehicles built by SpaceX, Blue Origin and others.
7 Urban Sky, a startup building stratospheric balloons, has raised $30 million in Series B, offering a complementary service to satellites, but also demonstrating that not everyting needs to be expensively placed in orbit.
8 Maxar has launched two additional Earth observation satellites, adding capabilities to a 10-strong existing network of satellites in both MEO and LEO, in a crowded commercial space primarily catering to government actors.
III. Quote of the Week
“No offense to the 183 launch companies that I’m tracking on my website, but that’s not the future of the space industry.”
Meagan Crawford, founder and managing partner of SpaceFund, explaining that the space market is not sized to have several SpaceXs.