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2025 Week 3 | Lunar market remains similar, ESA looking to evolve

I. Tracking

1. Intuitive Machines integrates a Nokia payload onto its lunar lander scheduled for launch February 2025

Another update from a startup preparing to return to the Moon almost exactly a year after its last successful mission. However, while Nokia is one of several commercial payloads looking to reach the Moon, alongside a rover from Japan's Daymon Corporation, the vast majority of the other payloads remain funded by government agencies, primarily NASA. It will be interesting to see how this small commercial company can sustain its meteoric stock growth (LUNR +175% in the past three months) and profitably diversify its customer base from the space agencies funding a return to the Moon, and in such a crowded field (Firefly, Lunasonde, Intuitive Machines, Astroforge, Rocketlab, Interlune just to name a tiny American few). While investors still seem open to fund these startups, without government support, it can impact other startups' ability to raise funds. One thing remains true: space startups continue to follow different fundraising challenges and opportunities compared to other industries. We'll check back as the launch approaches.




Map of Europe with dark background, flags marking countries. Text reads "Georeturns The End?" suggesting a concluding theme.

2. ESA is testing geo-return reforms through launch competition, bringing it closer to simplifying European contractual awards

Long used as a funding incentive for ESA member states, the deal was that the proportion of each nation's contribution would be dolled out in ESA contracts back to the contributing nation. This would fund local aerospace industries. The US sees similar challenges through many of its defense procurement contracts (think LCS or even the F-35 foundational program) in multiple congressional districts to maximize political approval. But ESA member nations recognize that for Europe to retain a competitive space industry, minimizing both the duplication of developments across national agencies, and the friction to receive funding, will be critical. This is good news for startups that don't have the resources to finance offices in all European states, and could cement further confidence in the growth of the European space industry. Whether or not it's in time though, is what we'll keep an eye on.




II. Immediate Awareness


1 Italy signals desire to sign with SpaceX's Starlink for government internet access, creating headaches for Iris2

2 The CEO of Airbus has said European aerospace companies are anticipating Trump protectionism, demonstrating the challenges allies will face to minimize duplicating low-volume-highly-critical technologies and their associated costs.

3 Toyota, through Woven, invests in launch startup and indicates it's also interested in space-based connectivety, all in support of its Woven City project

4 Taiwan's Formosat series of satellites will include more domestically made sensors, with the country aiming for a new satellite to be launched annually for the next seven years.

5 True Anomaly continues to lean into commercially-provided defense role with appointment of new VP of Space Defense

6 NASA's Roman telescope completes the integration of its key instruments, bringing the 15 year project closer to launch, and providing more tools to look away from Earth.

7 Adding another launch startup to the roster, BluShift is aiming for a suborbital launch from Maine in 2025, having secured $1.4 million in private funding.

8 A 500 kg metal ring that fell out of the sky and landed in a Kenyan village, suspected to be from a launch vehicle, is another reminder of the known-but-not-experienced risks of launch vehicles to those still on Earth.


III. Quote of the Week

"There's been a lot of churn about what this administration is going to do."

Steve Altemus - CEO, Intuitive Machines, referring to the incoming Trump Administration.

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